Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
